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International Seaways, Inc. (INSW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue $183.4M, GAAP EPS $1.00, adjusted EPS $0.80, and adjusted EBITDA $90.7M; results were pressured YoY by lower spot TCE across fleet but improved sequentially with month-on-month rate strength .
  • Strong beat vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $0.80 vs $0.64; revenue $183.4M vs $176.5M; EBITDA $88.9M vs $81.7M; management highlighted constructive supply/demand and rising booked TCE into Q2 2025; bolded beats represent potential positive revision catalyst .*
  • Continued shareholder returns: declared combined $0.60 dividend (regular $0.12 + supplemental $0.48), maintaining ~75% payout of adjusted net income; trailing 12-month dividends total $4.00/share (~10% yield) .
  • Balance sheet remains robust: liquidity $673M (cash $133M + undrawn RCF $540M), net LTV ~15%; fleet optimization (VLCC→MR swap) completed; booked blended spot TCE ~$31,200/day on 45% of Q2 revenue days, above ~$13,500/day spot break-even .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Maintained disciplined capital allocation and dividend policy: “for the third consecutive quarter, we are returning 75% or more of our adjusted net income to shareholders” .
  • Liquidity and financial flexibility improved: “ending liquidity of $673 million comprised of $133 million in cash and $540 million in undrawn revolving capacity” .
  • Constructive market view and supply backdrop: “We remain constructive on tanker supply… modest fleet growth… elevated recycling volumes… should help absorb new capacity” .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY earnings decline driven by lower spot rates: average spot earnings down ~$18k/day across fleet; shipping revenue fell to $183.4M vs $274.4M YoY; adjusted EBITDA to $90.7M vs $191.5M YoY .
  • Product carriers softness vs prior year: LR1 spot ~$27,400/day and MR ~$21,400/day vs ~$66,300 and ~$38,000/day in Q1 2024 .
  • Near‑term headwinds from OECD inventory draws (~50M barrels), muting tanker demand despite progressive rate improvements during the quarter .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$274.4 $194.6 $183.4
Net Income ($USD Millions)$144.5 $35.8 $49.6
Diluted EPS ($)$2.92 $0.72 $1.00
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$144.4 $44.6 $39.5
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.92 $0.90 $0.80
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$100.7 (EBITDA) / $191.5 (Adj.) $86.1 (EBITDA) / $94.8 (Adj.) $100.7 (EBITDA) / $90.7 (Adj.)
EBITDA Margin %68.7%*27.4%*48.5%*

Note: EBITDA Margin % marked with asterisk are values derived from S&P Global via GetFinancials; Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown (Shipping and TCE revenue):

SegmentQ1 2024 Shipping Rev ($M)Q1 2024 TCE Rev ($M)Q1 2025 Shipping Rev ($M)Q1 2025 TCE Rev ($M)
Crude Tankers$127 $124 $88 $85
Product Carriers$148 $147 $95 $94
Total$274.4 $270.9 $183.4 $178.3

Key KPIs (average spot TCE/day):

ClassQ1 2024Q1 2025
VLCC~$44,700 ~$33,500
Suezmax~$44,700 ~$30,900
Aframax~$40,900 ~$25,400
LR1~$66,300 ~$27,400
MR~$38,000 ~$21,400

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Combined Dividend (regular + supplemental)Q2 2025$0.70 declared for Q4 2024 payout in March 2025 $0.60 declared for June 26, 2025 (75% of adjusted net income) Lowered
Booked Blended Spot TCE (fleet-wide)Q1 2025 vs Q2 2025~$26,500/day booked on 70% of Q1 revenue days (from Q4 call) ~$31,200/day booked on 45% of Q2 revenue days Raised
Spot Cash Break-evenForward 12M~$13,700/day (Q4 call) ~ $13,500/day (Q1 call) Lowered
Time Charter Fixed RevenueAs of period end~$310M future contracted revs at 1/1/2025 ~$283M future contracted revs as of 4/1/2025; plus ~$12M one-year Suezmax TC added in Q2 Maintained/slightly lower (timing)

Note: Management did not provide explicit quantitative guidance for revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate; they provided booked TCE and expense framework for modeling .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev‑2)Q4 2024 (Prev‑1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Capital returns (dividends/buybacks)$1.50 dividend + $25M buyback; >12% yield over 12 months $0.70 declared; policy minimum ~75% payout going forward $0.60 declared; reiterated ~75% payout Consistent policy; payout ratio steady
Market rates & TCE momentumBooked blended spot TCE ~$27,200/day entering Q4 Booked blended spot TCE ~$26,500/day entering Q1 Booked blended spot TCE ~$31,200/day entering Q2 Improving sequentially
Break-even and leverageSpot break-even ~ $13,300/day; liquidity ~$694M Spot break-even ~ $13,700/day; leverage sub-16% net LTV Spot break-even ~ $13,500/day; net LTV ~15% Stable/gradual improvement
Fleet renewal & swapsSold older MR; buybacks; ongoing pool scale VLCC→MR swap announced; time charters; LR1 newbuild program Swap completed; proceeds; continued TC additions Executed plan
Geopolitics/sanctionsOPEC+ delays output; inventories draw; sanctions discussion Red Sea transit caution; aging fleet and term charter appetite OECD inventories down 50M bbl; rerouting persists; policy uncertainty Persistent uncertainty

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We delivered encouraging results… marked by a gradual strengthening of market conditions each month… declared a combined dividend of $0.60 per share… return 75% of adjusted net income” .
  • CFO: “For the third consecutive quarter, we are returning 75% or more of our adjusted net income… ending liquidity of $673 million… remain opportunistic with fleet renewal” .
  • CEO: “We remain constructive on tanker supply… modest fleet growth and elevated recycling volumes... should help absorb new capacity” .
  • CFO (Q2 outlook): “Blended average spot TCE of about $31,200/day fleet‑wide on 45% of Q2 expected revenue days… forward spot break‑even about $13,500/day” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Financing LR1 newbuilds: management evaluating options; revolver provides optionality; attractive financing expected .
  • Lease refinancing impact: refinancing SOFR+405 facility could reduce break‑evens by “several hundred dollars/day” .
  • Market dynamics: OPEC+ increase and non‑OPEC supply supportive of VLCC/Suezmax; legitimate tonnage seeing more business as Russian barrels shift .
  • Leverage target: comfortable broadly sub‑20% gross and ~15% net LTV; LR1 financing will not materially increase leverage .
  • LR2 market: many LR2s coat to keep optionality; older units tend to trade dirty; sector aging supports ton‑mile demand .

Estimates Context

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS ($)0.64*0.80 +0.16; Beat
Revenue ($USD Millions)176.5*183.4 +$6.9; Beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)81.7*88.9 +$7.2; Beat
# of EPS Estimates7*——
# of Revenue Estimates6*——

Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.*

FY context:

MetricFY 2024 ConsensusFY 2024 ActualFY 2025 Consensus
Primary EPS ($)7.72*7.75 4.80*
Revenue ($USD Millions)942.3*951.6 793.6*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)583.7*583.3 443.2*

Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 beat on EPS, revenue, and EBITDA vs consensus, supported by rising booked TCE into Q2 and disciplined break‑even control; estimate revisions likely skew positive near term .*
  • Dividend policy remains consistent (~75% payout of adjusted net income) with $0.60 declared for June; trailing 12‑month dividend yield near 10% strengthens capital return narrative .
  • Liquidity and low leverage (~15% net LTV) provide flexibility to finance LR1 newbuilds and opportunistic refinancing that could lower daily break‑evens by several hundred dollars/day .
  • Fleet optimization continues (VLCC→MR swap complete), maintaining average age ~10 years and enhancing earnings capacity across pools .
  • Macro/geopolitical uncertainty persists (inventories drawn, rerouting, sanctions), but management remains constructive on supply and ton‑mile drivers; watch booked TCE trajectory and time charter additions .
  • Near‑term trading: positive bias given Q2 booked TCE and break‑even spread; medium‑term thesis levered to constrained tanker supply, aging fleet, and disciplined capital allocation .
  • Monitor updates on LR1 financing, lease refinancing, and any incremental chartering/guidance disclosures to refine FCF and payout expectations .